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Is the Lehigh Valley's economy headed for a bumpy patch? The latest Kamran Afshar/Greater Lehigh Valley Chamber of Commerce business survey showed that for the second quarter in a row, area employers have reduced future hiring and spending plans, a signal they're not optimistic about the economy. Is it a sign of trouble, or just a blip? "The first quarter could be a hiccup, we have seen it two years in a row," said Afshar, a Bethlehem economist whose firm conducts the survey each quarter in cooperation with the Chamber to create "The Employment and Purchasing Index for the Lehigh Valley." Six months ago, the survey looked pretty rosy. The key purchasing plans index had finally moved back into what Afshar considers normal territory after plunging during the recession, and things were looking up. But something happened between October and April to sour surveyed companies' outlook. In the first quarter, the index of employer purchasing plans dropped 11 percent to 2014 levels, while actual expenditures over the last six months declined 6 percent. Hiring also fell, with companies adding on average half an employee, compared a full employee in the previous quarter. Future hiring plans were flat, with the average company planning to hire one employee in the next six months. Many businesses get conservative in election years, said Tony Iannelli, president and CEO of the Chamber. Presidential elections raise the level of uncertainty, he said, with constant debate about the country's problems, from its trade imbalance to the national debt. "I think it's pause for a business to think first before they do anything, and it will pick up after the election," Iannelli said during a taping of the Lehigh Valley Discourse radio show at WDIY-FM in Bethlehem. The show airs at 2 p.m. Thursday. Government regulations are also weighing on local companies, he said, while talk about increasing the minimum wage or creating new government programs makes them worry more about their bottom line. TD Bank's Stephen Patterson said his bank's business clients have reduced capital expenditure plans in recent months. Patterson, a vice president and senior relationship manager for middle market lending, said it's a matter of economic uncertainty. "It's the economy, and where is the economic rebound?" Patterson said. "I think that is still a question people don't have an answer to." Wells Fargo Bank economists issued a report in late April that put the risk of a U.S. recession in the next six months at 26 percent, which the bank characterized as elevated. Read article here.
Is the Lehigh Valley's economy headed for a bumpy patch?
The latest Kamran Afshar/Greater Lehigh Valley Chamber of Commerce business survey showed that for the second quarter in a row, area employers have reduced future hiring and spending plans, a signal they're not optimistic about the economy.
Is it a sign of trouble, or just a blip?
"The first quarter could be a hiccup, we have seen it two years in a row," said Afshar, a Bethlehem economist whose firm conducts the survey each quarter in cooperation with the Chamber to create "The Employment and Purchasing Index for the Lehigh Valley."
Six months ago, the survey looked pretty rosy. The key purchasing plans index had finally moved back into what Afshar considers normal territory after plunging during the recession, and things were looking up. But something happened between October and April to sour surveyed companies' outlook.
In the first quarter, the index of employer purchasing plans dropped 11 percent to 2014 levels, while actual expenditures over the last six months declined 6 percent. Hiring also fell, with companies adding on average half an employee, compared a full employee in the previous quarter.
Future hiring plans were flat, with the average company planning to hire one employee in the next six months.
Many businesses get conservative in election years, said Tony Iannelli, president and CEO of the Chamber. Presidential elections raise the level of uncertainty, he said, with constant debate about the country's problems, from its trade imbalance to the national debt.
"I think it's pause for a business to think first before they do anything, and it will pick up after the election," Iannelli said during a taping of the Lehigh Valley Discourse radio show at WDIY-FM in Bethlehem. The show airs at 2 p.m. Thursday.
Government regulations are also weighing on local companies, he said, while talk about increasing the minimum wage or creating new government programs makes them worry more about their bottom line.
TD Bank's Stephen Patterson said his bank's business clients have reduced capital expenditure plans in recent months. Patterson, a vice president and senior relationship manager for middle market lending, said it's a matter of economic uncertainty.
"It's the economy, and where is the economic rebound?" Patterson said. "I think that is still a question people don't have an answer to."
Wells Fargo Bank economists issued a report in late April that put the risk of a U.S. recession in the next six months at 26 percent, which the bank characterized as elevated. Read article here.